Rates
What Will the New Fed Chair Do?
Kevin Warsh’s first rate decision lands June 17. Expect no cut, and no quick relief for buyers waiting on cheap mortgages.
By David Golovin · June 16, 2026 · 2 min read
The short answer
Markets put the odds of a hold at about 99%. The Fed’s key rate stays at 3.50% to 3.75%.
Why no cut
Inflation has climbed back up, driven largely by an energy spike. Cutting rates now would risk pushing prices even higher, so the Fed is expected to wait.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index
What experts expect next
The rate decision is nearly a sure thing, so the tone matters more than the number. Here is where the calls land.
The next move: cut, hold, or hike?
A few months ago the Fed hinted at two cuts in 2026. That call is now in doubt.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, June 2026
The new chair is the wildcard
Kevin Warsh took over as Fed chair in May 2026. He is a reform-minded pick who wants a leaner central bank, and markets do not yet know whether he leans toward easy money or tight money. His first press conference is the real signal to watch.
Will rates hit 3% again?
How some buyers get a low rate now
When a seller already has a 2% to 4% loan, an assumable mortgage lets the buyer take it over: same rate, same balance. When the Fed holds rates high, that locked-in rate gets more valuable, not less. All FHA and VA loans qualify, and Roots shows thousands of these homes.
FAQ
Will the Fed cut interest rates this week?
Almost certainly not. Betting markets put the odds of no change at about 99%, with the key rate holding at 3.50% to 3.75%. Inflation has climbed back up, which makes a cut unlikely for now.
Who is the new Federal Reserve chair?
Kevin Warsh, sworn in May 2026 as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell. The June meeting is his first rate decision as chair.
Do Fed decisions lower mortgage rates?
Not directly. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, not the federal funds rate. What the Fed signals about inflation matters more for mortgages than the rate decision itself.
How do some buyers get a sub-4% rate today?
By assuming a seller’s existing government-backed loan. The rate, balance, and payoff schedule transfer to the buyer. All FHA and VA loans are assumable. Shop now at Roots.